A Snap Analysis of Election Day 2021

Election Day has come and gone, and every major race has been called. Though it’s far too early to make any calls on the long-term implications of these elections, we can make some quick judgments. It can be hard to determine much from the election in the first year of a presidency since it is generally the least-followed election process, with midterm elections still far on the horizon and the presidential cycle having not quite started. As such, voter participation takes a hit. In New York City alone, only 1.1 million of the city’s 5.6 million registered voters cast their ballots, a trend that followed throughout the country. Despite the poor turnout, there were several relevant elections and measures on voters’ ballots this November 2. The results were generally moderate, showcasing the public’s unwillingness to go extreme in current politics.

One aspect that draws voters to the polls during this part of the electoral cycle is the possibility for long-term change via ballot measures. These proposals, which amount to policy ratified by the people, can end up having large-scale effects. This year, Tucson passed an initiative to incrementally raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour, and Detroit decriminalized psilocybin mushrooms. Issues of race and policing also hit the ballot: Austin rejected growing its police force, Detroit formed a reparations committee, Cleveland created a police-regulating Community Police Commission, and Minneapolis rejected replacing its police with a Department of Public Safety that would have a major focus on mental health. While voters generally passed more liberal legislation, it seems that they shied away from fully extreme policy changes. While the failure to abolish the Minneapolis Police Department isn’t surprising, the passing of progressive policing policies is. After the murder of George Floyd, policing has been one of the most talked-about topics on the agenda. To see such progressive policies passing is encouraging as there has been little political action following Floyd’s murder.

Typical elections demonstrated the avoidance of more progressive politics as well. This year, several mayoral and gubernatorial positions were up for grabs, such as New York’s mayoral spot. In a wide, competitive Democratic field filled with candidates across the left-leaning spectrum, one of the more moderate candidates, former Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, won. Adams relied on the traditionally conservative talking point of law and order to capitalize on voters’ fears of a rising crime rate, dominating Republican Curtis Sliwa in the election. Another case of these centrist mayoral elections results occurred in Buffalo. In the Democratic primary, socialist India Walton stunned the political world when she defeated moderate incumbent Byron Brown. However, in the general election, Brown trounced Walton in a write-in election, more or less correcting what would have been a political aberration in a major city. Adams’s and Brown’s wins further reflect the political unwillingness to go all the way to an extreme. Despite a strong progressive push in New York City and a socialist win in Buffalo, moderate Democrats won out. While leftists like Walton are clearly gaining momentum, even more progressive areas are holding ground.

The gubernatorial elections showcase the undecidedness of the American public. Virginia has an unusual electoral situation as a governor cannot serve consecutive terms, causing erratic results in elections throughout recent history; the winning party of the presidential election lost the Virginia gubernatorial race in 10 of the last 11 electoral cycles. Regardless, the seat was considered safely blue this year as Joe Biden won the state by 10 percent in 2020. Thus, it was a large win for Republicans when Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who was seeking to regain his seat after taking a mandatory term off. Capitalizing off of fears of critical race theory and parents wanting to control their children’s education, Youngkin defeated McAuliffe by two percent. Even more, Republicans excelled in seats they were not even expected to be competitive in. Given that this election was argued to be a forecast of the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election, the result certainly spells out potential political success in Republicans’ futures.

On the other hand, New Jersey’s gubernatorial race forecasted potential political success for Democrats. Incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy defeated Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by 3.2 percent. While that margin was closer than expected, the result was still a change of pace for Democrats. Indeed, the party had not had New Jersey governors win a second term since 1977. Bucking a similar trend to the one in Virginia, Murphy became the first candidate to win after the party won the presidency since 1985. Though it is no major electoral coup, Murphy’s win signifies a change in the status quo and the potential for the 2022 midterm elections to not be a trouncing. While individually looking at the gubernatorial elections may show a political tilt, their composite view demonstrates an American public without a strong bias.

The results of the 2021 elections indicate that America’s political climate is in the stout center. Gubernatorial elections signified both Democratic and Republican advancements, though cities’ tendencies to avoid straying too far to the left—both in mayoral races and ballot measures—further cement the electoral trend: an increasingly polarized political climate. As a result, the 2022 and 2024 elections are hard to forecast—the American electorate can’t seem to make up its mind.