Allan Lichtman, Keeper of the Keys

With every election season, Americans across all fifty states find themselves abuzz in anticipation of their new president. As polls flip flop and debates unfold, many citizens—voters and non-voters alike—attempt to predict November’s results. Of course, many of these predictions are baseless, inaccurate, or both. But not those of Stuyvesant alumnus and American historian Allan Lichtman (‘63). Famously, Lichtman is the inventor of the “Keys to the White House,” a model of predicting the outcome of the presidential elections.

Lichtman credits Stuyvesant for his interest in quantitative history—historical research involving numeric data extrapolation—which eventually built the foundation for the Keys. “I got an incredible training in science and math [at Stuyvesant],” he stated. “It was that expertise that enabled me to work with [Russian geophysicist] Vladimir Keilis-Borok and develop the Keys to the White House, and that all goes back to the incredible mathematics and science education that I got.”

Stuyvesant also encouraged Lichtman’s love of history. “I also loved my social studies classes,” he said. “Stuyvesant, although I wasn't ready yet, set me on a path of becoming extremely interested in history and current affairs,” he described. 

Throughout his time at Stuyvesant—and even before—Lichtman was immersed in politics. “I kind of grew up in a liberal Democratic family, and we discussed politics a lot over the dinner table in my family. So while I wasn't explicitly pursuing a career in history or politics, it was certainly always, at least since 1960 when I was 13, an ongoing interest of mine,” he explained. In fact, Lichtman recalls attending rallies in his youth to maintain involvement and awareness. “I went to see John F. Kennedy at a political rally in 1960,” he described. “I was just blown away by his charisma, his incredible magnitude, his ability to inspire the crowd and really get us rolling.” 

Lichtman’s system of the “Keys to the White House” is a set of 13 true or false questions—which Lichtman dubbed “keys”—about the performance of the incumbent party in the White House. If eight or more keys are determined to be true, the incumbent party will win re-election. These keys include factors such as whether the incumbent party has gained House seats in recent presidential and midterm elections; whether there is two-thirds party support for the candidate; the lack of a major third party; strong short and long term economies; any major policies enacted; no social unrest and scandal; foreign policy failure; and more subjectively, a comparison between the incumbent’s charisma and the challenger’s. Specifically, this key turns false if the challenger is a once-in-a-generation charismatic figure, but remains true in all other cases.

The Keys to the White House have worked in the past—Lichtman has accurately predicted the past 10 elections’s popular vote results. In 2000 and 2016, the Electoral College contradicted the popular vote, resulting in two technically “false” predictions. In any case, this system’s stellar track record is attributed to the fact that the keys are based on multiple enduring models of governance and sets of statistics, as compared to polling data that is based on individual elections. “Good governing is the most important thing and not any of the events of the campaign,” Lichtman said regarding his prediction announcement on September 5, before the presidential debate five days after. 

For the inspiration for his system, he credits the work of the director of the Academy of Sciences in Moscow, Keilis-Borok, on geological stability. “It was [Keilis-Borok’s] idea that we become the odd couple of political researchers using the methods of pattern recognition that he used an earthquake prediction to predict presidential elections,” Lichtman explained. “We used Keilis-Borok’s method of pattern recognition to see what patterns in the political environment could best distinguish between stability and earthquake. We were guided by my insight that American presidential elections don't turn on campaigns, but are primarily votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House Party.”

Despite these interests, however, Lichtman’s path to becoming a historian was an unexpected one. Originally, his academic pursuits led him to medicine. “I was fully expecting to go into science, and indeed, after I left Stuyvesant, I went to Brandeis [for] pre-med,” Lichtman said. 

However, he soon realized that he wasn’t suited for this career path. “Ultimately, I did decide, I didn't like being around sick people. I hated the sight of blood, and I was clumsy in the laboratory,” Lichtman said. Though, by the time he approached his Dean with his plans to drop out of pre-med, Lichtman was already in his senior year. “[The Dean] said, ‘You can't. You finished it. Senior year,’ [to which] I said, ‘It's my life. I can do what I want,’” Lichtman recalled. 

Despite the administration’s shock, especially since leaving the pre-med track after finishing the requisite undergraduate courses has been a substantial life change, Lichtman stood by his decision. “I said, ‘I’m going to go to history grad school.’ He looked at me, got a strange expression in his eyes, and said, ‘Lichtman, you’re crazy.’” Clearly, Lichtman’s risk paid off; he received a PhD from Harvard University in 1973, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods, and he began teaching at American University the same year. 

Lichtman has been a Professor of American History for over 40 years, published over 12 books, and provided political commentary on leading cable channels. Considering his many years of experience, he has an abundance of advice for the student body. “Always keep an open mind and continue to kind of have an internal dialogue with yourself, you know, is the path you’re on, maybe [influenced too much] by society or your family, [and] maybe you'd want to do something else,” he said. 

Furthermore, Lichtman suggests that students remember that an incredibly multifaceted world exists outside of high school and that it’s important to continue having an open mind as students learn to navigate a relatively new, complex political landscape. “I think it’s really important to keep that kind of self-reference going [...] You know, think about what’s important. Yes, the studies are important, but there are so many other things that are important,” he said. Rather than focusing on a specific career path or field of study, Lichtman recommends students to explore multiple walks of life, including staying up to date on political events.

He finally advised that students remain physically active. “I know you’re not going to think about getting old when you're 17, but the secret to a successful life in terms of your own body and physicality is regular, aerobic exercise that's never too early to start,” Lichtman stated. He himself ran track for several decades, even qualifying for the national senior Olympics. Now, his interest in athletics involves rooting for various New York sports teams: “I cling to my New York sports loyalties,” he said. “In particular, three teams, I still love the New York Giants, a huge disappointment; New York Yankees, who I hope are on their way to the World Series for the first time [since] 2009; and the New York Knicks who've made a lot of trades that maybe, maybe, will yield them their first championship since the 1970s.”

Although Lichtman did not initially agree with the Democratic party’s decision to replace President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris as the candidate for President, he has since been headstrong in his prediction that she will become the 48th President of the United States because the incumbent party holds nine true keys—no major same-party or third-party challenger, strong short- and long-term economies, major policy changes, little social unrest and scandal, relatively successful foreign policy, and obscure challenger charisma. “[On September 5th], I predicted that Kamala Harris will become the first woman president, at least cracking, if not shattering the glass ceiling, and she will be the first president of mixed African and East Asian descent, kind of foreshadowing where the country is going,” Lichtman said.