Political Chaos in Sri Lanka Threatens Post-Civil War Stability

Barely a decade after the end of a 25-year civil war, Sri Lanka is again facing a political crisis, with two prime ministers claiming power and the government being divided. The chaos began on October 26 of this year, when Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena unseated Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe—later claiming that one of Wickremesinghe's cabinet ministers had been plotting his assassination.

In a hurried and contested snap-election, former President of Sri Lanka Mahinda Rajapaksa was appointed the new Prime Minister. Rajapaksa is credited with ending the country’s bloody civil war, but also faces numerous accusations of human rights abuses and war crimes. While Rajapaksa asserts that he has popular support and a majority in Parliament, Wickremesinghe still claims to be Prime Minister (even changing the Prime Minister’s website to display a picture of him with text saying “I’m still the Prime Minister”), leaving the country divided between Wickremesinghe’s and Rajapaksa’s supporters. The two groups have been protesting outside the Parliament building and causing unrest and violence within it, with opposing parties throwing chairs, books, and chili paste at each other.

The situation surrounding the replacement of the Prime Minister is incredibly suspicious and can appear coup-like because of the lack of democratic process surrounding it. When Rajapaksa was appointed, President Sirisena suspended Parliament—possibly to strong-arm votes for Rajapaksa—and after intense criticism, promised to reassemble Parliament on November 14 to allow a clear vote. But less than a week before the set date, Sirisena reneged on his promise, redissolved Parliament, and called for snap-elections in January. In response, Sri Lanka’s highest court allowed Parliament to reconvene on November 14, and Parliament ended up rejecting Rajapaksa as Prime Minister with a no-confidence vote. Two days later, another no-confidence vote was held in which Parliament once again rejected Rajapaksa. Despite this, President Sirisena is standing by Rajapaksa as Prime Minister, and Wickremesinghe has remained in Temple Trees, the official residence of the Prime Minister.

While political power remains divided within the country, the Parliament is still overwhelmingly opposed to Rajapaksa and as a result, voted on November 29 to suspend the Prime Minister’s budget. This will likely be one of a series of actions taken by the opposing forces of Sirisena and his Parliament to seek dominance over the government until the newly scheduled election on January 5.

In the meantime, this conflict will only further exasperate the divides between Sri Lanka’s Buddhist Sinhalese majority and Tamil Hindu minority, two ethnic groups whose historical conflicts originally led to a bloody 25-year civil war between 1983 and 2009. Rajapaksa was credited with ending the war, but with a brutal use of force against Tamil forces and civilians alike. He’s been accused by the United Nations (UN) of war crimes related to denying humanitarian aid, attacking civilians, and refusing to cooperate with international investigations. After the war, he was linked to the deaths of journalists investigating him and his war crimes. This resulted in a dip in popularity that prevented him from being re-elected and instead allowed Sirisena, a former member of Rajapaksa’s cabinet, to take advantage of the situation by running for president. In his campaign and first year of office, Sirisena gave hope for a Sri Lankan partnership with the UN, as well as a crackdown on corruption and an investigation of war crimes. But in his past three years in office, very little has been accomplished, partially due to a deteriorating relationship with Wickremesinghe. In bringing back Rajapaksa as Prime Minister, there are many worries that the government is turning back the clock to Rajapaksa’s former presidency. If he ends up being appointed as Prime Minister in January, Rajapaksa will likely steal much of the power from Sirisena and achieve de facto control over Sri Lanka.

The potential for Rajapaksa’s resurgence to power is one of the major reasons why the U.S., among other countries, is condemning this democratic crisis. In a statement, the U.S. State Department said, “The U.S. is deeply concerned by news the Sri Lanka Parliament will be dissolved, further deepening the political crisis. As a committed partner of Sri Lanka, we believe democratic institutions and processes need to be respected to ensure stability and prosperity.”

Other countries such as China are supporting Rajapaksa because they have been allies with him in the past. China specifically profited from Rajapaksa’s leadership, which helped establish a Chinese port and airport in Sri Lanka and left Sri Lanka heavily in debt. India, on the other hand, the other major geopolitical force in the region, supports Wickremesinghe due to his past attempts to establish closer relations between their two nations. Because Sri Lanka is a small island country often affected by the geopolitics of the countries around it (notably the China-India rivalry), it is likely that the outcome of the political crisis in Sri Lanka will both affect and be affected by the nations around it.

What is of utmost importance now is that Sri Lanka is able to maintain its democratic institutions, not succumb to dictatorial-like rule, and not be threatened by the ethnic tensions that the conflict brings out. If the country can trust the outcomes given by Parliament to be democratic and representative of the will of the people, then some sense of political stability will be brought back to the nation—regardless of who emerges as Prime Minister.