Super Bowl 58: Reconciling Analytics with Decision-Making on the Field

For the second time in five years, the Kansas City Chiefs faced off against the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl. For many, this game was a chance to witness a defining moment in NFL history: the Chiefs potentially winning the Lombardi for the third time in five years and establishing a dynasty. For others, this game was a chance at redemption for the 49ers to secure what had slipped out of their grasp so many times.

Perhaps the least expected of all the numerous oddities that come with the NFL was global superstar Taylor Swift and her highly publicized relationship with Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Their relationship led to a new group of spectators, carrying radical criticism from some NFL fans.

The 2022 season for the 49ers ended with a tough playoff loss. Right when 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (also the final pick in the 2022 NFL draft) seemed to be stepping up as a leader, he tore his UCL in the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles, which they ultimately lost.

While the Niners were projected to be strong contenders at the start of this season, analysts doubted Purdy’s status as a true star quarterback. But as the season progressed, the 49ers and Purdy established themselves at the top of the NFC with a 12-5 record. They also boasted the most Pro Bowl selections, with nine of their players awarded the honor, including edge rusher Nick Bosa, running back Christian McCaffrey, receiver Deebo Samuel, and offensive tackle Trent Williams, just to name a few. Purdy emerged as an MVP frontrunner and silenced critics by finishing the regular season in the top five in both passing yards and touchdowns.

The 49ers playoff run was far from smooth, though, with all of their games coming down to the wire. In their games against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, the 49ers were forced to come back from the verge of elimination twice, a far cry from their demolition of teams during the regular season. During halftime against the Lions, the 49ers were down 24-7 before they stormed back to secure a trip to the Super Bowl.

While the Chiefs entered the season riding on a momentous Super Bowl win against the Philadelphia Eagles, it soon became clear that a repeat wouldn’t be as easy. The Chiefs dropped their season opener to the Lions, and their offense looked stagnant. That stagnancy could be attributed to a weak offensive line and drop-happy wide receivers. Offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor was called for the most penalties this season, and receivers like Kadarius Toney dropped passes at crucial moments.

After their bye week, the Chiefs went on to lose four out of the next five games, three of which came against teams with losing records. Despite the Chiefs’ offensive struggles, it was their defense led by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo that carried much of the load throughout the season. Thanks to them being in a division with no real playoff contenders besides the Broncos, the Chiefs were able to make the playoffs with a regular season record of 11-6, their worst since quarterback Patrick Mahomes joined the team in 2017.

Adding on to the matchup were Taylor Swift’s fans, or “Swifties”, who joined the Super Bowl watch party. Their general lack of care for the game besides Taylor Swift’s presence in a private suite, along with their shallow-minded support, annoyed many hardcore fans. What resulted was a cult-like reaction from football fans.

At first, football fans and “anti-Swifties” called on Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson to save them from the Chiefs. However, after the Chiefs beat the Ravens, the fans looked to Purdy. Though still a young prospect, he was backed by an immense following in the days preceding the Super Bowl. With seemingly every NFL fan (bar Chiefs fans) behind him, he was tasked to subdue this madness. At first, the game seemed to be in the 49ers’ hands with them having 10 unanswered points and recovering a fumble as the quarter drew to a close.

However, right before the first half ended, the Chiefs responded with a field goal. Both Purdy and Mahomes showcased some great passing play, keeping a keen eye on their tight ends George Kittle and Kelce, respectively.

During the start of the fourth quarter, Kittle would secure a crucial first down that would ultimately set up receiver Jauan Jennings’s touchdown, bringing the score to 16-13. Though the lead was in favor of the 49ers, it would quickly be flatlined by Harrison Butker’s 24-yard field goal. With a lack of scoring from either side, this Super Bowl went into overtime for just the second time in NFL history.

By overtime, the 49ers had exhausted their fuel, both mentally and physically. The team chose to take possession first, leaving them with little flexibility during their defense in OT. During OT, both teams are given one possession to determine the game. If a team is given the advantage of choice, they should logically pick defense first. The theory behind this decision lies in the fact that you want to be on offense knowing what you need to score. By assessing the point deficit by the end of your opponent’s possession, you could adapt and choose an easier method of scoring (i.e. kick a field goal), or at least have given your offense more time to think of lethal routes to the endzone.

The choice made by Niners Head Coach Kyle Shanahan was confusing and absurd, with fans across America scratching their heads in response. San Francisco was only able to march down the field for three points, leaving Mahomes with the ball to get a touchdown and win the Lombardi.

In OT, Kelce would rise to the stage, bulldozing his way to a first-and-goal. On a play called “Corn Dog,” receiver Mecole Hardman slipped past the defense to score the final touchdown of the Super Bowl, sealing the game shut and ascending the Chiefs to glory once again.

Many 49ers fans were left confused and upset with this year’s Super Bowl. To casual watchers, the choices and plays throughout the game had aspects that seemed to follow little logic. For example, the lackluster protection during the 49ers’ final third down. Post-match footage showed that had the offensive line not had a breakdown in protection, Purdy would have been able to throw it to two open receivers in the endzone.

The emergence of the Swifties also added tension between casual viewers and forced out radical criticisms of the game. The variety of Super Bowl spectators this year led to the growing accusations of a “scripted Super Bowl” in sports conversations. To many, this was the only applicable reason why Shanahan would choose to take offense first, why the game score oscillated more often than previous Super Bowls, and more extremely, why the presence of Taylor Swift appeared to lead to the Chiefs’ victory.

Conspiracies that answer this “heinous resolution” now dominate the post-season NFL discussion. Sports podcasts, in conjunction with fans, are now searching for obsolete evidence to defend their theories, generally scattered in harsh criticism throughout social media. But these fans are just simply overlooking the deeply analytical aspect of the game. What if the 49ers had held the Chiefs to a field goal in OT? During double overtime, and returning to the old OT rules, the 49ers would have the last possession of the game if they were to score.

There are several other “what-ifs” that spectators this year have on their minds. The fact is, the actual result of the Super Bowl undermines the much more rigorous thinking when it comes to decision-making. There is still a lot to break down about the game that most viewers simply ignore. With this in mind, it seems as if it is becoming increasingly difficult to sympathize with the players and coaches on the field, knowing hundreds of millions of eyes were watching their every move.