Super Bowl LII: Tale of the Tape

For a little while, I thought this would be a fun article to write. Jacksonville was up by 10 in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game, and rookie linebacker Myles Jack forced an amazing turnover, forcing and recovering a fumble by running back Dion Lewis. The Jaguars would drive down and the Patriots would finally go down. Fun underdog Jacksonville would go to their first Super Bowl, and the New England dynasty would fall! Insert some Blake Bortles being the best to ever live jokes, laugh at the sad Patriots fans outside Boston sports bars in the East Village, and enjoy the two weeks of Super Bowl talk.

That dream is dead. Patriots-Eagles, round two. Boston versus Philly. Giants fans may want to catch up on Netflix.

With all that said, it’s time to put on my objective hat and give a little preview. Both teams came into the playoffs 13-3 and got home field advantage through the playoffs. Both teams had one blowout and one scare on the road to the Super Bowl, but while they were number one seeds, their paths weren’t too easy.

The Eagles lost star second-year quarterback Carson Wentz in the middle of an MVP-caliber season in week 14 and hobbled into the playoffs. He was replaced by Nick Foles, who in his five starts (including playoffs) has gone 4-1, but shown off his inconsistency, delivering good, terrible, even more terrible, decent, and amazing performances in those games, respectively. New England will pose less of a challenge than Minnesota did on paper for the NFC Championship Game, but giving Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare and sending out a quarterback with backup-level talent certainly don’t scream out much hope for Philly.

Things haven’t been too easy for New England either, which lost wide receiver Julian Edelman before the season began, and had to come back against Jacksonville without star tight end Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady is also 40, and he, Belichick, and owner Robert Kraft aren’t all getting along right now, so that doesn’t help. Yet, they did it again, here for the eighth time and looking to capture their sixth title together.

The Patriots opened in Vegas as 5.5-point favorites, and with the far superior quarterback and coach, this number seems fitting, possibly even a bit low. However, New England finished 29th in the league in yards allowed on defense while Philadelphia finished fourth. The Eagles also possessed the third best rushing offense in the league and the best rush defense in the league, so through dominance of the trenches, they can carve out a path to victory, or at least a path to covering the spread.

At the end of the day though, what works for New England is their system, and that’s what allows Tom Brady to play at the top of his game at the age of 40 and what has kept the New England dynasty running for 17 years. Ultimately, this will defeat Philadelphia. The Eagles have Doug Pederson as a very good coach on their sidelines, but coupled with the sub-par talent of Nick Foles, they won’t be able to answer what the Patriots send after them late in the game. New England’s relatively weak defense might allow Philly to drive the ball down the field, especially early in the game, but their elite red-zone defense (top-three in the league) will hold them to field goals in big situations.

When the Patriots have the ball, things might not be easy, but they’ll find a way to move the ball. Brady is a smart quarterback who knows how to protect the football, as he did last round against Jacksonville’s number one ranked pass defense. The Eagles will likely give the task of guarding Gronk to Pro Bowl safety Malcolm Jenkins and probably get another player to help, opening up the slot for receivers Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan and allowing the speedy Brandin Cooks to spread out the field. Philly’s stout run defense should force Brady to beat them through the air, but that wasn’t a problem last year against Atlanta down 25, and it shouldn’t be come Super Bowl Sunday.

At the beginning of the season, I wrote about how impossible it was for a defending champion to win the Super Bowl. But I also said the Giants would get the number one seed.

New England wins, 28-23.