The No-Action Pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly developed since late January when the United States detected its first case in Washington State. The rest of the world had already begun to have a taste of the pandemic with China locking down Wuhan, the birthplace of the virus, and the Trump administration restricting travel to China.

Fast forward two months to late March, and what started as one case in Washington exploded to 138,908 cases as of March 29 across all 50 states. New York State, just shy of 60 thousand cases, is at the top of the list for the most infections by a large margin. In addition, while the number of cases in some countries, namely China and Italy, has plateaued, the growing number of cases in the U.S. shows no sign of stopping.

For the first time in centuries, the battle is at home against an invisible enemy immune to our country’s traditional military defenses. Despite the status of the U.S. as a wealthy country, an economic powerhouse, a hub for scientific innovation, and the world leader in health preparedness, the coronavirus outbreak has still managed to instill panic and disrupt our daily lives.

The U.S., unlike other countries, has lagged behind in preventative measures. For example, the U.S. and South Korea both detected their first cases around the same time, but the number of tests conducted per person in South Korea soared. South Korea has tested around 360 thousand people as of March 25, 2020, while the U.S. has tested only around 420 thousand people despite having a population six times larger than South Korea’s. The lack of efficient testing misinforms health officials about how many people have truly been infected as well as where the hotspots associated with those infections are.

In addition to poor testing, the U.S. has not taken effective measures to curb the economic impacts of the coronavirus. The outbreak has forced many people to stay at home, and only businesses deemed “essential” are allowed to remain open. Many restaurants are forced to lay off workers as the number of customers dwindle, greatly increasing the number of unemployed. The partial shutdowns taking place across the country result in the economy suffering less than it would in a total shutdown as the risk of infection increases, prolonging the pandemic as long as a vaccine is not developed. The U.S. Senate only passed a $2 trillion package on March 27 to stimulate the tanking economy, which was initially shut down by Senate Democrats. Sadly, partisan politics slowed down the economic response that could have also helped slow the spread of the virus.

The final contributor to the poor response of the U.S. to the coronavirus outbreak is the slow pace at which it is introducing aggressive social distancing policies. The U.S. has not initiated mandatory quarantines like those in Italy and China; rather, it has let each state determine its own way of controlling the outbreak. For example, some states have banned gatherings involving more than a certain number of people. Specifically in New York, the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., Governor Andrew Cuomo has banned gatherings above 500 people and closed public attractions. This number is much too large and should be lowered to 100. For reference, Wikipedia defines a large church gathering as one that has 51-300 people, though many churches and other gathering places have opted to close. People are also choosing to stay at home, but these half measures aren't very effective at preventing infections in the long run, as the NYC subway continues to operate. Service has already been cut due to falling ridership and worker shortages, highlighting how the late economic response is heavily impacting required infrastructure. However, the cuts to service may not help control the spread because fewer riders are on fewer trains, resulting in a similar rider-to-space ratio as that of normal service.

A possible strategy to prevent the harsh economic backlash would be to invest heavily in makeshift hospital wards, quarantine those over 65 years old and those who have chronic respiratory illnesses, and let the virus burn through the rest of the population like a normal flu epidemic. This would require tremendous investment, but it is beginning to look plausible as large businesses like Apple and Facebook pledge money and healthcare equipment to support coronavirus relief efforts. Allowing the virus to spread through the population may seem counterintuitive, but its low mortality rate and high recovery rate make this an appealing option. The alternative, developing a vaccine, may require even greater investment and time while still being vulnerable to mutations of the virus. By allowing the virus to spread, herd immunity can be developed. Enough people will be immune to the coronavirus so that the chain of transmission will be broken and the pandemic will end.

As more resources are recruited to combat the coronavirus pandemic, containment of the outbreak seems highly likely, though the numbers give conflicting evidence. The fatality rate of coronavirus in the U.S. is two percent compared to the global fatality rate of five percent, indicating that the U.S. is only in the beginning stages of the pandemic and that coronavirus cases have not yet overwhelmed the healthcare system. However, it is to be determined in the upcoming days if this will remain true.