A Second Iranian Revolution?

Masha Amini, a 22-year-old woman, was confronted by Iranian religious police and brutally tortured on September 14, all for allegedly violating Iranian interpretations of Islamic religious law. Amini died from those injuries two days later, stoking a flame in Iran’s population. Extrajudicial killings such as this one have been a relatively frequent occurrence within Iran, but the death of Amini erupted into unusually widescale protests primarily led by young girls and women. Almost all were born after the Iranian Revolution in 1979 that overthrew the over 2,500 year-long autocratic regime led by the Shah, resulting in the current establishment. As a part of these protests, many are defiantly breaking the strict interpretations of Islamic law, calling for the deposition of the Ayatollah, the de facto leader of Iran, and the current regime. Iran has never seen protests on such a wide scale and of such length, with all previous protests against the regime having been brutally and successfully suppressed. Iran’s struggles to contain these protests suggest that the fire in the protests will consume its government as it loses the support and will of the people.

Over the past decade, Iran has faced numerous protests as living standards have fallen while the population becomes composed of those who have lived their entire lives under the current regime. The current republic (composed of a Supreme Leader and elected government) is very unpopular, and many Iranians boycotted the election last year after the ruling party eliminated anti-establishment candidates. Following the increasing pursuit of saber-rattling policies, sanctions from Western powers further damaged the economic situation, not to mention the gutting of the Iranian nuclear deal. These protests have threatened the autocratic grip on power but have not been able to achieve that goal in a significant manner yet. The current protests, however, have been much more successful and widespread, making it extremely difficult for them to be suppressed.

The deposition of the autocratic monarchy, which was well over 2,500 years old, in 1979 occurred after months of protests in the Iranian Revolution. The government had effectively become unpopular with the populace and was seen as corrupt and incompetent. Many women led the revolution against the Shah, as the society was relatively progressive for women, but the government’s corruption was seen as a turnoff for many Iranians. This opposition contained disunified factions (some communist, some more democratic) that had a common goal, to remove the Shah from power and install a more democratic system of government, the definition of which was disagreed upon by various factions. Ruhollah Khomeini, a conservative Shia scholar, became the central figure of the revolution, unifying different factions in their opposition to the Shah and ultimately replacing the Shah as the autocrat to govern Iran.

Upon taking power, Khomeini implemented hardline Islamic policies, especially those restricting the rights of women, despite having relied on their support in the past. This action left a simmering resentment among women for the current regime, as their rights have been drastically curtailed. The brutality of the death of Amini likely inflamed the simmering anger into protests of incredible determination and perseverance. Young girls and women are risking brutal punishment to protest against the system in an attempt to break it, but the death of Amini has made it clear there is nothing to lose. The current regime considers them second-class citizens in all but name. They will remain as such unless there is change.

There are the sparks and fuel for a second Iranian revolution, but there is not yet a fire. The government of Iran is struggling to maintain control of its territory, but it has not appeared to begin to collapse, at least for now. More members of Iranian society must decide to challenge the government in order for a fire to burn, one that would consume the Iranian government. Authoritarian states in the past have collapsed due to their own failures, including the Soviet Union and the Khmer Rouge. One of the primary deterrents against the revolution is fear of emerging political instability if the autocratic regime collapses, as has been seen in fallen countries like Iraq, Libya, and Germany between the World Wars. For these concerns to be disregarded, a strong leader must emerge who is able to unify factions and promote the spirit and ideals of the revolution, instead of using it as a way to mandate their ideas, as Khomeini did. Only then can the fire of revolution burn.

The current regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran is on borrowed time. It has clearly lost the mandate to rule from its citizens, and it is only a matter of time before they support a rebellion. The oppression of women has invigorated an opposition force poised to threaten the government. The government has pursued saber-rattling policies that have isolated it from the Western world, to the discontent of its citizens. The sheer brutality of this killing may serve as the spark for a second Iranian Revolution, but even if it does not, the regime will fall. Autocracies cannot prevail if the people do not wish for them to govern and instead express the desire for self-governance. There will be a date in the near future when the current regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran will become a mere fact of history. It will set an incredible historical precedent: that autocracy is not tolerated in a region depicted for its autocracy and theocracy, and that the influence of nations that attempt to install autocracy is not welcome.