Catalonian Secession: A Regression for Europe

A strong national identity, a legacy of separation, and perceived economic unfairness were all factors when United Kingdom voters decided to leave the European Union in what is now known as Brexit. Great Britain is now set to leave the EU behind, along with its free trade and migration, for an uncertain economic future.

Catalonia, a province of Spain, is charting the same path. In a recent referendum held by the Catalonian government, voters chose independence, and the regional government declared its secession from Spain. While the Spanish government effectively crushed independence in the short term, temporarily revoking the province’s autonomy and arresting secessionist officials, the drive for independence is unlikely to be quelled for long. However, Catalonian independence would only hurt both Catalonia, Spain, and Europe.

First and foremost, Catalonia would probably be denied membership in the European Union. Accession would require the approval of all 28 member states, which is unlikely considering that all EU member states support the Spanish central government against Catalonia. Because two-thirds of Catalonia’s exports go to the EU (and one third go to Spain itself), EU membership should be a huge factor in the Catalan people’s decision to secede. The European Single Market provides Catalonia with access to 500 million consumers, but if Catalonia were independent, nations could impose high tariffs and other trade barriers on Catalan goods.

There are many other factors to consider, such as how the debt situation with Spain would be handled. Spain currently has a massive debt load, and it’s unclear whether Catalonia would have to assume some of that burden in an independence deal. There’s also the question of whether Catalonia would create its own currency or continue using the Euro. In the face of these uncertainties, multinational companies have already begun to relocate their head offices outside of Catalonia.

The now-deposed Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, has refused to recognize the difficulties and complexities that independence would bring, drawing a striking similarity to the rhetoric of populist politicians elsewhere in Europe, such as Nigel Farage.

The most decisive argument against independence for Catalonia is that most Catalans don’t actually support independence. While the latest referendum had a 90 percent vote for secession, it was conducted illegally, and the Spanish government urged “no” voters not to vote, resulting in a turnout of only 42 percent. In fact, prior to the beginning of the crisis, only 35 percent of Catalans supported full independence. Hundreds of thousands of protesters turned out in a pro-Spain rally on October 29; many of them were angry with the course of action the local Catalan government, the Generalitat, had taken. In fact, the Washington Post finds that around three-quarters of Catalans culturally identify with Spain, as well as Catalonia.

Catalonia’s role as a citizen within the European community also needs to be considered. Over the last two decades, the majority of Europe has come together in the belief that an international community of European countries would bring economic prosperity and maintain peace. That stability, however, relies on its 28 member states staying unified internally, both in their national and European identities.

However, this solidarity has shown major cracks. According to Pew Research, 51 percent of people within the European Union want their own countries in control of future trade deals, not the EU, and 53 percent want their own country to hold a referendum on continued membership. The most dramatic result of these pressures thus far was Brexit, reflecting the rising nationalism in Europe, with citizens increasingly wanting political and economic control to return to their own countries.

Catalonian independence isn’t an immediate rejection of the EU, but of Spain. However, the independence movement is inherently nationalistic, with supporters viewing themselves as Catalan, not Spanish. The success of this movement would send the message that the nation is the most important political unit in Europe. At a time when Europe faces crises such as a weak economy, uncertainty of U.S. commitment to European security, and the challenge of dealing with refugees, EU leadership provides solutions: improve the economy through the single market, centralize European militaries to fill a void left by the United States, and divide up the responsibility of handling refugees. Catalan independence would harm Catalonia, Spain, and Europe by splitting them at a time when unity is required in the face of adversity.

Spain’s handling of the Catalan referendum left much to be desired, with police violently repressing voters and voting officials, but that does not make independence a more promising future than unity with Spain. Though Catalonia has had its autonomy temporarily revoked in response to the crisis, beforehand, Catalonia enjoyed a significant degree of autonomy from the central government under the Constitution drawn up in 1978. Under this arrangement, the Catalan government had broad authority in matters regarding education, commerce, justice, public safety, and culture.

The Spanish government should restore Catalonia’s privileges and make an effort to resolve differences regarding the Constitution. Additionally, the Catalan government should try to cooperate with authorities in Madrid. There is no perfect solution to the problems facing Spain and Catalonia, but if both sides can come to an agreement, both Spain and Catalonia will be better off.